Windows phone revolutionReading time: 4 mins
Predicting the future or defining the future? The current state of Windows phones.
Lately different platforms have adopted the windows mobile OS and the Nokia models in particular have dropped in prices1. In time, as this adoption continues2 we can expect a few things to happen all of which will drive the ecosystem forward. Predicting how this will happen is a very exciting and incredibly important challenge in the mobile markets but it is also very easy to get wrong. I will attempt to speculate on a set of predictions that I hope come true, but only time can tell:
We are noticing more windows phones are coming in consumer’s hands, slowly but surely. The sales and adoption trends will continue to rise steadily but at a slightly slow pace. More manufacturers will start offering windows phones, and updates that are released will make the interface cleaner, minimal, simplistic and a complete pleasure to use. After the interface has reached a stable state, the updated will start to focus on the core architecture.
The next stage will also be somewhat stealth. In this stage, developers, power-users and hobbyists will start to talk amongst each other about the growing windows platform and this will begin the hacking-phase. Power-users and developers will push the windows OS to its limits trying to tweak every setting, app and so on. They will post their results in their blogs or other forums and that will result in a very clear cut expectations of the windows platform and what can be improved on. Microsoft will begin to take notice.
This third stage is critical and it is fueled by a viral app. With more power-users and developers talking about the windows phones and coming up with cool neat little tricks using the platform, some developers will take notice. Windows Store doesn’t have a lot of the major apps, but it is definitely starting to have more users. This is not a bad thing - on the contrary, this is an opportunity for any good developer to make it big and have their app get far. One of those new apps being submitted is going to go on the windows platform and become absolutely viral. Because we don’t have a lot of the trendy apps on the windows platform, if a developer can take advantage of their UI and design to make something unique, the app also doesn’t need to have a ton of features, a few would be great just to start off. The viral factor will come in from the downloads and then the major news media will also start to take notice. This will draw out more attention to the platform which the app leveraged and showcased to get the viral effect.
With the viral stage going through the boom-cycle, Microsoft will also take notice in the fourth stage. This is one of the times they will see the potential of what their platform is bringing to its users. Based on that, they will dedicate more developers to the project and fixing up some fundamental features like being able to clean app cache and making an app to for that themselves. Once the basic issues are fixed up, it will only attract more indie developers who complain about their apps not making it big. After having seen previous success in the early-viral stage, they will want to jump on this boom-cycle too.
Major app developers will notice this build-up and it’s time for the major changes. We just need one or two of the big apps to start developing for the windows phone and their competition can’t ignore this and they have to start developing too. This will complete the cycle and we will definitely being to see more and more windows apps. People will realize just how easy it is to develop those too since windows OS’s are native to most of us anyways.
I will try to make more revisions to this in the near future and now it’s time to sit back and watch how this really folds out: Will windows OS platforms be as successful as I predict here? Time will tell!